BUC DRAFT PREVIEW 2007
April 24th
Is the Gruden Era coming to a tragic end like a murder suicide or is it at the brink of success?
Can Gruden/Allen sew the seeds of the genus’ vision to the multitudes and into W’s, or has the gleam worn off?
Since the 2002 draft the BUC’S have drafted 44 players, of which 9 are starters ( 2 on D and 7 on O). 15 players are backups on this club while 15 are out of the NFL. It is not a shock to anyone that the BUC’S have not utilized the Annual Player Selection Process as it could have been used to improve the lot for this team.
Yet, what remains in their hands is the chance to utilize this Draft, coupled with the Fort Knox-like available Money to rebuild in one season this club, back into a Playoff Caliber team.
The Gruden led team has had 3 losing season’s in the past four…so what has needed to be fixed, has it been done, and can it be done in time to save this duo from the Free Agent market they so covet?
What is clear is that Jon Gruden and Allen have a lot riding on this Draft and the utilization of Dollars available to spend in Free Agency. To date, they have been under performing in both areas and the blame Richie motif is wearing very thin.
The test will come as it always does(for most clubs) for the Draft in the later rounds…the BUC’S have been near bottom in the league in finding Diamonds in the rough. The 2002 draft has exactly one player starting and 7 of the total 8 picks out of the NFL…this is a failure in scouting.
The last two drafts provided the BUC’S with 22 total picks, of which, we have currently 4 starters and 11 back ups, few potential starters are expected from this lot. What is most interesting is that of the 44 picks not a single Stud is among the group…those seven starters are Chris Simms, Cadilac Williams, Dan Buenning, Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, Jermaine Phillips, and Will Allen.
The Cadilac selection has turned out to be suspect. If you are selecting 4th, you must find a three down player…Cadillac’s inability to be a threat out of the backfield should have dropped his stock to the middle of the first round. Yet, the Offensive Genius ignored the stone-like hands and was so enamored by this player there were worries of a Governor McGreevy like announcement.
Michael Clayton was an example of a player, again, selected before his value. To date, blamed on injuries this player has had one good season, his first. Few teams expected him to go so high, unfortunately the BUC’S were one of them…Allen has been a vocal defender of their choices for the past several years, but the numbers in the Draft and the utilization on the roster tell a different story. Not one relevant pick on the second day has an impact on this team!
IN DEFENSE of the BUC’S drafting woes…
In defense of the Buc’s drafting woes on Defense is the fact that since even before the Super Bowl year, the Buc’s have lost coaches like they are socks in a dryer. Ultimately, this has changed the scope of Tampa 2 type players which had been the exclusivity of the Buc’s scheme to become the predominate Defensive scheme in Football today.
As a result, the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Jets and Lions have employed the Tampa 2…in 2000 it was the Rams who selected like the Buc’s, then the Jets (who have recent change to a 3-4) and then the Eagles and Bears, and now the Lions.
Several of our Scouting Department personnel have also left to man offices in St. Louis, Seattle and Chicago too…so for better or for worse we have been a depleted brain trust, which has left Gruden and Allen to think, evaluate and select and seemingly over-rule the hired scout staff.
It is not ironic that the selctions over the last several years have been players eyed and evaluated by Gruden and Allen at the Senior Bowl…do ya think?
Finally, The BUC’S have the longest DROUGHT at selecting future PRO BOWLERS…the last pro bowler selected via the annual player selection meeting was Ronde Barber in 1997…that is rather sad…interestingly, Cleveland is not inept at the draft, followed by…you guessed it Oakland…see any connections…let us hope Gruden/Allen have learned a thing or two?!
SO, what is needed to fix the BUC’S?
Not a Good but rather a Great Draft!
Not a Good but a Great utilization of Dollars in Free Agency
Few injuries!
So we will explore:
1) FREE AGENCY/TRADES
2) DRAFT NEEDS
3) DRAFT PROSPECTS
4) MOCK DRAFT for BUC’S
5) AGE
6) SLEEPERS
7) 1st ROUND SUCCESS BY POSITION
1)… FREE AGENCY/TRADES
Sammy Davis CB FA
B.J. Askew FB FA
Pat Chukwurah DE FA
Levon Thomas WR FA
David Boston WR FA
Kenny Smith DT FA
Kevin Carter DE FA
Luke Petitgout OT FA
Darrell Campbell DT FA
Cato June LB FA
Davis, Askew, Carter, Petitgout and June are expected to big contributors to the rotation.
Potential TRADES:
Rice is being dicussed in trading circles to either: Move up to get Calvin Johnson or To acqurire a DT from Detroit like Shawn Cody…
Kelly is disgruntled with his contract and could be moved on or before Draft day…possible scenario is Kelly for Jonathan Vilma MLB of the JETS…Jets need a cover corner.
Jake Plummer or the rights to him is open for interest, possibly for a Draft pick.
2)… NEEDS
The Tampa 2 is built around speed and the ability to keep plays in front of the D, to penetrate and disrupt without blitzing, to drop 7 into coverage and bring the SS up on run downs, inside the box.
Like success in Baseball, the Tampa 2 also needs strength up the middle. As baseball has C, SS, 2nd and CF, strong up the middle, in the Tampa 2 it is the two DT’s, particularly the UT (Under Tackle), the MLB, WLB, and SS.
Not coincidentally, the BUC’s struggles coincide with the D struggles.
The fact is over the last many drafts, the D has been ignored…so much so that depth is weak and the production has slid to a point of crisis. Offenses sell tickets and D’s win championships
O(rank) D(rank)
Points 13.2(31) 22.1 (21st)
Y/G 270(29) 329(17th)
Rush 95(28) 119(17)
Pass 174(26) 209(19)
Total O D
Pass plays 535(11th) 493
Ave
Y/PP 4.9 6.47
Per
O Play 4.45 5.19
1st D 237(31) 300(18)
1st Rushing 83(27) 108(21)
Cadillac and Clayton had terrific rookie years followed by lack luster seasons…Caddy ran for 3.5 per carry…Clayton is an underachiever at this point. Our woes on Offense are manly associated with weak and poor O line play, while our D play has declined due to age and production…
As such the teams needs are…
DT: Under tackle has been a sore spot since Sapp left due to Salary Cap issues. Hovan is a good player and mans the NT spot. McFarland failed to fill the need and Wyms just does not have the staying power…the help wanted sign reads, Quick, strong, gritty and penetrating DT to play the Under Tackle position in a Tampa 2 D, willing to assume the key role on the Defense. Must be willing to be disciplined and willing to take on two blockers while stuffing the run and rushing the passer…AKA superman. Seriously though, this is the key to the D, if this position fails, the D breaks down due to assignment allocations…1 gap responsibility! HOWEVER, the BUCS could consider moving Hovan to UT and drafting a bigger run stuffer type like Alan Branch instead of a UT type like Amobi Okoye. Kevin Carter, brought in FA is a player who can play both DT spots and DE in our D, giving the BUCS great flexibility in this draft…but he is 33.
SS: Since John Lynch left due to Salary Cap issues (sounds familiar) Phillips assumed this role, but has under preformed. Key to the middle of this D is the SS ability to be the enforcer across the middle in passing situations and to cover enough ground to let the corners to sit in the low zone. Tackling is a must, this last line of defense is the Johnny on the spot…he cannot break down or big plays will come. The Tampa 2 relies upon giving up small chucks of real-estate while protecting against the big play…missed tackles lead to big plays as does giving up the middle of the field. Landry would a great fit for this Safety friendly D scheme. Though several other options exist in this solid S draft…Weddle, Wendling, Rouse, Piscitelli, Gattis, Payne
MLB: 2nd round pick on 2005 is being expected to step in for Shelton Quarles AKA the ‘old man’. Yet, if anyone watched, he does not appear to be able to step in yet…he may never be the player they hoped he would be, an ample back up, but not the starter they envisioned. Quarles will be released because at his age (36) his value is highly questionable for the price…not to mention his ability to come off injury…so the need for an MLB who can eat up the tackles, be a sure tackler and be able to drop into coverage like a safety is now! The BUC’S LB’last year were known as old, older and legacy. Patrick Willis is an ideal fit for our D, but Justin Durrant, Quincy Black and Tim Shaw also fit nicely, but overall it is an average at best MLB draft.
Willis is my personal favorite…
DE: White was lost to FA and Spires did not play inspired. Rice was injured and has not yet fully recovered…could he even pass a physical if a trade were worked out. Rice and Spires are neither spring chickens, in fact, they are old for DE’s by NFL standards. Age, injuries and quality of play all proved too much to handle last year…the worst sack total since 1994. Help is needed to sure up the pass rush, and to add vital youth to this geriatric unit. Gaines Adams is simply the best DE in the draft, but he has work ethic issues and a bunch of quality behind him at DE in this Draft Class.
WR: Yes, the BUC’S failed two years in a row in the effort to fill the future needs via the draft. Though the grade is still not in on Stovall, the effort put forth over the last two years by Clayton have been woefully deficient. Galloway is aging and is playing above his injury prone past would indicate…time will catch up soon, depth is needed to find that replacement now, not to mention to add a quality PR and KR to the mix…in case you had not heard the BUC’S have not returned a KO for a TD yet…ever! 1825 tries, 0 TD’s. Calvin is the real deal, but it is a fairly good class with some intriguing return guys and combo WR/KR types. Regularly gems can be found in the mid and late rounds
LT: a Franchise LT is missing from this team…patches help, but they do not last. This team needs to be able to write the LT name in pen rather than pencil for the next 8 to 10 years…any takers? The safest pick in the draft is Joe Thomas, though not the sexiest. Like WR, it is not uncommon to find real quality in the mid rounds…see New England.
C: the BUC’S lost Sean Mahan in FA and are left with Wade who they wanted to replace last season, but were unable to do. The future at C needs to be drafted this season and groomed to play by years end. Talk has it that Jeb Terry needs to be the next Mahan and learn the position
QB: yes because Garcia, Plummer and Simms are not enough…well not for a Super Bowl team. You only have to look back over the last 40 years to seem the theme of the NFL…great teams have great QB’s…Manning, Brady, Farve, Aikman, Young, Montana, Bradshaw, Unitas et al…If you want to have lasting success, you must have that lasting successful QB…serviceable as they are they are not great. Kolb and Beck seem to fit our system best, but we are overloaded on salary and have Gradkowski, who needs to develop.
CB: Barber and Kelly are aging…slowing down and making fewer crucial plays. The future has to be found and taught the ropes as it was taught to Barber and Kelly…in the Tampa 2, trusting the system and playing the system are key to success…rookies rarely have that discipline, pining on the bench actually helps to mellow those risky tendencies of people used to being on that island. A good class of CB’s awaits a mid round selection by the BUCS, but who…Bennett, Young, Wright, Jackson or 2nd rounder Hughes?
3)… DRAFT PROSPECTS
Conventional wisdom and JON GRUDEN have all singled out one player the BUC’S will select on Saturday…but should they?
Later round alternatives are players that fit the BUCS…
CALVIN JOHNSON WR 6-5 239 4.37
Strenght of WR CLASS—B+
Why Calvin Johnson…boy is that a dumb question…a 239 pound WR with 40+ vertical leap, and runs a 4.39…he is a freak of nature who possesses amazingly soft hands and a feel for the game that is very rare…he is smooth and runs precise patterns. The only thing that kept GT from winning 12 games was the fact that Reggie Ball played in 11 of them. Any team would consider it a great deal if they only had one pick and it was Calvin, besides he has all the glitter without the showmanship or attitude. Oh, OK he did ‘experiment’ with weed…so is anyone seriously worried about this kids character? NO!
Why NOT Calvin Johnson…
1) In 50 years there has never been an MVP who was a WR.
2) Why spend that type of money on a 0% of being an MVP
3) Do the Math, even with 100 catches, that is only 6+ catches a game, hardly difference making impact
4) Who led last year, Andre Johnson, for a 6 win team…does not translate into victories
5) Historically, WR’s can be had in later rounds…See Colston etc.
6) Ask the Lions Matt Millen if he would pick a WR again in the top 10
7) Ask the Cowboys if TO was the answer to there team success?
8) WR is a deep position again in this years Draft…you can have patience, this is a very deep class…one or two maybe three 1st rounders but many 2/3/4ths.
9) CJ is not a KR/PR by nature, Figurs, Clowny or Higgins have the deep threat and PR potential
LATER ROUND OPTIONS: Jacoby Jones (3), Craig ‘Buster’ Davis (2), Yamon Figurs (4-5), Johnny Lee Higgins (4-5), David Clowny (4-5), Jason Hill (5-7), James Jones (5-7), Laurent Robinson (4-7), and Robert Meachem (1-2), Steve Smith (3-4), Usama Young (5-7)
JOE THOMAS OLT 6-61/2 311
Strenght of the OT CLASS----B+
Why Joe… well you can arguably plug him in for the next 10 years and expect a few pro bowl appearances in that time…one word-Security! Great in the running game due to his ability to run block beyond the initial 5 yard scrimmage area…it would not be uncommon to see him utilize his athleticism and be 10 or 15 yards down field continuing to block. Equally strong upper body balances his efforts for either strong bull rushers or speed guys. Bucs have had success with OT’s from Wisconsin…would be a good fit for an improved running game and provide protection for young QB or slowing vet.
Why not Joe… DEEP DRAFT AT OT…Short Arms are usually a characteristic that drops a LT to the middle of the first, but his other tangibles have made this objection a bit less focused upon, but not any less important…well, this is a very deep OLT draft and you can likely find a quality LT in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Also, with the insurance of Luke Pettigout you can use the depth already on the roster and wait to the later rounds to select a small college LT which pepper the league… The best teams find gems in the middle rounds to fill needs across the line and utilize the second and third for LT’s. Finally, having watch his film, I did not see him finish a single block, no killer instinct, he is technician who wins the battle but rarely destroys his foe.
LATER ROUND ALTERNATIVES: Joe Staley (2nd), Brandon Frye (3-4), Jacob Bender (5-7), Daniel Parrish 3-5),
GAINES ADAMS DE 6-41/2 265
Strenght of DE CLASS----A
WHY GAINES…It is not a secret that Rice under preformed, as had everyone listed as a DE on the Buc’s roster. Sack totals were embarrassingly low. For the Tampa 2 to work, pressure must come from the edge and underneath. Needing to blitz to create pressure breaks the integrity of this standard D. Gaines has good burst off the line, a sound tackler and athleticism and strength to compete at the high level needed from a WDE. Gaines could be a good replacement for Simeon, they have many similar traits coming out…tweener’s who could be suited for OLB in 3-4 if they could drop in coverage better…but neither had played that role in College. Hence, you look to them as a speed rusher who must work in the weight room to combat lack of size. Very productive as a pass rusher, who possesses several NFL caliber rush moves. Could replace Simion without much notice.
WHY NOT GAINES…somewhat one dimensional…has not shown the ability to play the run consistently. Running at him, runs over him, not solid at point of attack. Not a high character guy with the lunch pale mentality, could struggle being an adult and bringing it every down. Is he a take the money and run kind of guy? With these intangible questions it may be wise to wait until the second to address this need in this strong DE class. Risk is too high for the potential reward considering the amount of talent in DE class. Besides, the BUC’S feel pretty good that they have a DE, Charles Grant, willing to come after this next season…so need is not as great as it may appear on the surface.
LATER ROUND ALTERNATIVES: Adam Carriker NEB (1-2), Quinten Moses UGA (2-3), Jarvis Moss UF (2-3) Tim Crowder TEX (2-3), Jacob Ford C ARK (2-4), Ikaika Alama-Francis HIA, (3-4), Baraka Atkins MIA (3-6), Antwan Applewhite, (5-7)C.J. Ah You OKL (5-7)
PATRICK WILLIS MLB 6-1 242
Strenght of MLB CLASS---B-
Why Patrick…built for the Tampa 2, he is tackling machine. High Character guy who is a hard worker, very smart and humble (Derrick Brooks like). His speed and athleticism fit into the Tampa 2 very well and his consistent play molds well into the NFL game. Violent hitter who explodes into tackles, and moves from sideline to sideline well. Awesome instincts for the position, and has a nack for fining the ball carrier. Since of all the NEED positions have deeper draft classes, this would be the best pick for the BUC’s
Why not…He does not drop into coverage as well as the Tampa 2 would like, but he does posses the skills to do so, but has shown some trouble in that area. He can get caught up in traffic at times, which will come into play more in the NFL.
LATER ROUND ALTERNATIVES: Tim Shaw PSU (2-3)Justin Durrant, Ham (2nd), Rufus Alexander, OKL (2-4), Quincy Black, NM (3-5), Stewart Bradley, Neb(4-5), Nate Harris, Lou(4-6), Zak DeOssie (4-6)
BRADY QUINN QB 6-4 230 4.7
Strenght of QB CLASS---B
Why Brady…I will ignore the ND factor and only focus upon the facts, yet an important fact is that he has tutored under Charlie ‘I make seventh round picks, 3 time Super Bowl winners’ Weis. Seriously though, a four year starter you has played in more important games than half the NFL starters already. Ignore all the Passing Records he has accumulated at ND, and look only at the pressure he has faced, he is ready for the NFL. Strong Armed and can throw all passes in the arsenal. Brings his A game when it is needed, steps up, and does not look phased by pressure. He has good sense of the rush and is mobile enough to buy time and run when necessary. He is leader who understands the importance of staying calm. Yet, what places Brady at the top of the Class at QB is his maturity and work ethic, he is a tireless worker and a character guy, through and through…future Pro-bowler and 10 year starter. Gruden would love to have a QB that can think like him on the field and Brady can…uses the Runningbacks like the WC likes too.
Why not Brady…he can be slow starter and miss passes early in games…takes time to warm up sometimes. Brady has a tendency to be off target particularly on passes early in games, long ball more frequently. System guy, maybe…needs a coach who he can communicate with
LATER ROUND ALTERNATIVES: John Beck BYY 6-2 215 (1-2), Kevin Kolb HOU 6-2 220 4.8 (1-2), Drew Stanton MSU 6-5 230 4.75 (2-4), Jared Zabransky BS 6-2 215 (3-5)
LARON LANDRY SS 6-0 205 4.4
Strenght of SS CLASS---B+
Why LaRon…possibly the best athlete in the draft, less a guy named Johnson. Does not get fooled and can recover if he does with great speed. He is sound tackler, not a grabber but he wraps people up…sometimes willing to lessen his hit to ensure the tackle is made. Plays a Tampa 2 style run defense who can bring a pounding. Would provide immediate help for the Buc’s at a position that has been struggling in the past 3 years.
Why not…he has problems catching the ball sometimes…balls others would not have gotten to, he does, but drops. Needs to be a better centerfielder and play the ball. Tends to be a little cocky, but also tends to back it up…sometimes disappears in games
LATER ROUND ALTERNATIVES: Michael Griffin TEX 5-11 195 4.4 (1-2), Aaron Rouse VT 6-3 220 4.4 (1-2), Sabby Piscitelli OSU 6-2 220 4.4 (2-3), Josh Gattis WF 6-1 210 4.45 (2-3), Eric Weddle UT 5-11 208 4.5 (2-3), John Wendling WY 6-0 221 4.4 (2-3)
AMOBI OKOYE 6-2 290 5.02
Strenght of DT CLASS----B-
Why Amobi…b/x everyone needs a Nigerian on their team..OK..well he is a Sappish player. Disrupts from the UT position, sure tackler and has high energy. Doesn’t give up. Strong, quick and agile for a Defensive Tackle…did I just describe Sapp. Lost weight to play better, and at such a young age can add it naturally…only 19. Can take up space and has good use of his hands…Ideally made for the UT position favored by the BUC’S…
Why not…can be stood up and left out of the play…his youth can play against his maturity…must come to terms with age issue. Could take time develop due to age. Fluctuation of weight could lead to problems…but no substantive problems from his game.
LATER ROUND ALTERNATIVES: Ray McDonald UF 6-3 285 4.9 (2-3), Justin Harrell TN 6-4 305 5.1 (2-3), Tank Tyler NCST 6-2 320 5.25 (2-3), Derek Landri ND 6-2 285 5.00 (3-4), Marcus Thomas UF 6-2 290 4.9 (2-3), Ryan McBean OkSU 6-4 280 5.1 (3-4), Brandon Mebane Cal 6-1 305 5.1 (3-5)
Here is a list of Players who make PLAYS on D…they create turnovers and havoc…
Player Pos. Big Plays(INT, FF, FR)
Weddle S 27
Griffin S 24
Gattis S 23
Piscitelli S 19
Hall CB 18
Wendling S 16
Hughes CB 15
Woodley DE 15
Bauzin DE 15
Ross CB 14
Taylor LB 13
Spencer DE 13
Alexander LB 13
Crowder LB 12
Players who grade out well in various categories…Players who fit the BUCS…
As you may recall, I like quickness qualities like the 20SS and 3 cone and the 225 for strength. When you find a player who has four or more quality scores…WOW. Of course, they cannot measure heart and desire…
40 225 VJ 20ss BJ 3cone
Gaines Adams 4.64 35 4.36 9.11 7,17 Excellent 40, 20ss and 3C
C.J Ah You 4.7 26 36 4.4 9 7.06 Amazing, but Character ?
Ant Applewhi 4.7 25 35 4.36 9 7.5 will emerge in Pros
Dallas Baker 4.6 36 4.1 10 6.69 very quick for big WR
John Beck 4.77 4.17 6.82 Wow, he is quick for QB
Fred Bennet 4.46 17 38 4.3 10 6.66 Kelly like Quickness CB
Q. Black 4.42 24 41 10 6.86 Amazing LB numbers
A. Carriker 4.9 33 33 4.18 9 7 Quick and Strong, 40?
D. Clowny 4.36 4,15 KR/PR…Hester-like
T. Crowder 4.69 32 30 4.32 7.2 ?? in head, but on paper
C. Dahl 17 35 4.26.2007 6.69 SS who is quick
J. Daniels 25 SS who is strong
Datish 31 Strong C
DeOssie 4.58 26 4.22 10 6.89 LB with S like Q
J. Durant 4.51 25 36 4.09 11.44 6.77 Pro Bowl Brooks #’s
Figurs 4.3 4.21 10 6.85 Hester like numbers
Fry 34 C with Strenght
Gaddis 4.45 22 36 4.3 11 FS stud by the #’s
Gattis 4.53 22 4.27 11 6.72 imagine these two
Gonzales 4.44 38 4.08 11 6.54 Wow…and hands
Griffin 4,45 16 36 4.11 11 6.6 Someday PB
L. Hall 4.39 15 37 4.07 11 6.5 Hall of Fame #’s
D. Harris 4.6 23 4.29 Stud LB,
C. Henry 4.4 26 36 4.14 11 6.96 Best RB in Draft
j. Hill 4.3 37 4.22 10 Quick/Fast and size WR
C. Houston 4.3 27 36 4.12 10 6.94 size is only draw back
B. Jacksonq 4.57 4.14 RB with hands and feet
K. Jackson 33 4.56 will impress in Pro’s
T. Jackson 4.56 4.28 6.9 FS mainstay
Rory Johnson 4.6 19 38 4.07 Quick for an LB
Kalil 4.96 34 4.34 Quick and Strong C
B Leonard 4.49 28 10 6.88 Better than Alstott #’s
M. Mason 4.4 4.08 KR/PR
R. McBean 27 4.46 Q and S DT
McCauley 4.4 17 36 4.17 6.61 Stud
McKnight 4.16 6.84 Quick for big WR
Meachem 4.39 37 10 solid WR
J. Moore 4.9 26 34 4.35 7.19 ath DE
Mormino 27 4.53 C with S and Q
Piscitelli 4.47 10 3.9 11 6.84 PRO BOWLER
L Robinson 4.38 19 39 4.28 11 6.83 Stud!!!
B Robinson 4.67 27 40 4.26. 10 6.9 Wow DE
A Ross 4.44 17 4.15 6.67 Stud CB
T. Shaw 4.5 26 36 4.12 7.01 Q and S LB
S. Smith 4.4 38 4.19 6.68 WR with KR
T Tyler 42 DT is Strong!
Weddle 4.48 11 4.12 6.78 SS for BUC
Wendling 4.48 22 38 4.16 11 6.96 SS for BUC
P. Williams 4.45 4.24 size and speed
CJ Wilson 4.5 37 4.2 11 6.81 Cover man
E Wright 4.36 16 36 4,3 10 6.9 Stud with issues
4)… MOCK DRAFT for BUCS
I am selecting not who I think the BUCS will, but rather should select…
PICK PLAYER OPTIONS
1(4) Landry, S Willis LB/Adams DE/Johnson WR/Thomas OT
2(35) Spencer, DE Kalil C/McDonald DT/McCauley CB/Harrel DT
2(64) Black LB Davis WR/Smith WR/Free OT/ Hill WR/Bennett CB
3(68) Robinson WR Jones WR/Beekman G/Weddle S, Durrant LB
4(102) Young CB Bender OT/Rouse S/Shaw LB/ Johnson DT/Gattis S
5(141) Figurs WR Koets OT/ Jones G/ Fry C/ Crowder DE/ Atkins DE
7(214) Stephenson G
7(245) Coe CB
7(246) Cohen DT
who will the BUCS take…
1 Johnson WR if not then, Adams DE
2 Harrell DT if not then, Kalil C
2 Piscitelli S if not then, Booker RB
3 Bennett CB if not then, Thomas DT
4 Durrant LB if not then, Marten OT
5 Johnson DT if not then, Figurs WR
7 WR and Linemen
5)…AGE
The predominate issue facing this BUCS team is AGE! Why is so important to list it as a topic? Everything the BUCS need to do in this draft is related to AGE! The lack of, and declining production of the D over the last several years is directly associated with the AGE issue. A Defense reliant upon speed and quickness is especially susceptible to declining production as a result of age.
Here is a list of players who are aging and where depth is needed behind them, or starters are needed in replace of them.
YEARS
13 Derrick Brooks---replacement needs to be found …June may be that person
13 Joey Galloway---replacement needs to be found…likely in CJ but I hope in rds 2-4
13 Kevin Carter---yes, a one or two year helper at best, not a solution, Problem area
12 Mike Alstott---Askew is a good start…not an essential priority
12 Simeon Rice---Production way down, need to find his replacement now
11 Ronde Barber---the CB tandem is old, Zemaitis, Davis and Buchanon + Draft
11 Shelton Quarles…OK released, but may be resigned...RUUD is not the solution
11 Ike Hilliard…OK so two WR’s need upgrading in age department…see CJ
11 Jake Plummer…QB is not an immediate problem area…but future is
10 Brian Kelly…the best cover man is getting gray…need more help here
10 Greg Spires…expect to find via Trade or Draft some help
10 Juran Bolden…yes he is expected help the Geriatice duo, this position is old
10 Michael Pittman…Gates will be gone, so expect a mid round pick at rb
as you can see, age is catching up on the BUCS…so CJ is probably a safe bet if he is on the board. However, the BUCS have been rumored to be considering trading up to get him…as you can see, the BUCS are aging too much at CB, DE and WR to trade up particularly considering our other pressing issues like DT, LB and S…we need more picks not less.
6)….SLEEPERS
Potential 2007 draft sleepers: Those who fit the Bucs system in BOLD
Usama Young, CB, Kent State — Underrated speedster who really put his name on the map at his Pro Day and will go higher than most think.
Justin Durant, LB, Hampton — Small-school talent, but boasts big-play ability. Some experts think he could be this year's Antoine Bethea (Colts).
Justin Hickman, DE, UCLA — A strong, quick, explosive pass rusher ideally suited for outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Piled up 12.5 sacks in 2006.
David Patterson, DT, Ohio State — Had a big-time showing at the Senior Bowl. Intense pass rusher who needs more strength for run defense.
Matt Toeaina, DT, Oregon — This quick, strong space-eater (6-foot-2, 307 pounds) can rush and stop the run. Has ability to play defensive end.
Antwan Barnes, DE, Florida International — A "tweener" tackling machine who ran a 4.45-second 40-yard dash with 31 bench-press reps (225 pounds) at the Combine.
Mike Walker, WR, Central Florida — Big, strong, fast and productive with great hands. Scouts are calling him "Baby T.O." without the luggage.
DeShawn Wynn, RB, Florida — A multipurpose back for the Gators, Wynn (5-11, 232) surprised scouts at the combine when he ran a 4.45.
Kevin Boss, TE, Western Oregon — Division II prospect has excellent size (6-6, 252) and sure hands; still developing as route-runner and blocker.
Matt Muncy, LB, Ohio U. — A rugged defender who attacks downhill. He could be first Ohio U. position player drafted since 1973.
7) 1st ROUND SUCCESS BY POSITION
SI-Report-Kluck
Players picked in the first round between 1989-2003
Pos # Bust % 1st Round Pro Bowl %
OL 70 31 26
DE 55 31 33
CB 52 29 23
WR 51 45 31
LB 48 16 39
DT 42 33 40
RB 41 49 36
QB 30 53 33
S 19 11 53
Defensive players easily become the better choice in the first round, particularly in the top of the first round. If you factor the odds with the outcome you surely come to the same conclusion I do, CJ is awesome but for long term success you can see why Chicago (until recently) and Detroit have failed to make the Draft work for them…not playing the odds.
The stats would tell you the safest picks are as follows, in order…
Joe Thomas (would fit BUCS need)
Gaines Adams (would fit BUCS need)
Adam Carriker (Could fit as the SDE for BUCS)
LaRon Landry (would fit BUCS need)
Patrick Willis (would fit BUCS need)
Amobi Okoye (would fit BUCS need)
Teams with most BUSTS
Bears, Lions and Eagles --8
49ers, Broncos—7
Cards, Pats, and Rams—6
This bust percentage can be mitigated by drafting well in middle and later rounds like the Broncos, Bears and Pats
GO BUCS!!!
